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| QUARTER | REPORT DATE | EPS EST | EPS ACT | SURPRISE | REV EST | REV ACT | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY25 | Nov 20, 2024 | $0.84 | $0.89 | +5.9% | $33.2B | $35.1B | BEAT |
| Q2 FY25 | Aug 28, 2024 | $0.64 | $0.68 | +6.2% | $28.4B | $30.0B | BEAT |
| Q1 FY25 | May 22, 2024 | $5.59 | $6.12 | +9.5% | $24.5B | $26.0B | BEAT |
| Q4 FY24 | Feb 21, 2024 | $4.64 | $5.16 | +11.2% | $20.1B | $22.1B | BEAT |
| Q3 FY24 | Nov 21, 2023 | $3.37 | $4.02 | +19.3% | $16.1B | $18.1B | BEAT |
| Q2 FY24 | Aug 23, 2023 | $2.07 | $2.70 | +30.4% | $11.2B | $13.5B | BEAT |
| Q1 FY24 | May 24, 2023 | $0.92 | $1.09 | +18.5% | $6.5B | $7.2B | BEAT |
| Q4 FY23 | Feb 22, 2023 | $0.81 | $0.88 | +8.6% | $6.0B | $6.1B | BEAT |
| METRIC | Q3 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q1 FY25 | Q4 FY24 | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $35.1B | $30.0B | $26.0B | $22.1B | ↑ +59% |
| Gross Margin | 74.6% | 75.1% | 78.4% | 76.0% | ↔ Stable |
| Operating Income | $21.9B | $18.6B | $16.9B | $13.6B | ↑ +61% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.89 | $0.68 | $6.12 | $5.16 | ↑ Beat |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.8B | $13.5B | $14.9B | $11.0B | ↑ +53% |
| P/E Ratio (FWD) | 31.4x | 34.2x | 38.1x | 42.0x | ↓ Compressing |
Extracted 14 material risk factors from the FY2024 Annual Report. Key concentration risks identified: Data Center segment constitutes 87.4% of total revenue, creating single-segment dependency. Export control risk elevated following October 2023 BIS rule amendments targeting H100 shipments to restricted jurisdictions.
Competitive risk disclosure references AMD MI300X acceleration, Intel Gaudi 3, and custom ASIC programs at Google (TPU v5), Amazon (Trainium 2), and Microsoft (Maia 2) as material threats to GPU market share in hyperscaler CapEx allocation.
MD&A section flags two forward-looking revenue headwinds: (1) Blackwell production ramp constraints expected to limit Q4 upside relative to order backlog, and (2) China export restrictions reducing TAM by an estimated $8-10B annually at current pricing.
Free Cash Flow conversion rate improved to 47.8% of revenue from 44.2% in the prior quarter. Capital return program: $15.4B returned via buybacks in the trailing twelve months. Share count declined from 24.64B to 24.44B diluted shares outstanding.
Synthesis across FY2024 10-K and trailing two 10-Q filings identifies three primary thesis-altering signals:
No material related-party transaction changes detected. Options-relevant: next earnings (Q4 FY25) implied move historically ±8.2% on 8-quarter average. Guidance beat rate: 7/8 on revenue, 8/8 on EPS over same period.